A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
