How The Strange Season Broke the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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