Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a pivotal trip to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump. This marks the first face-to-face meeting between the two figures after months of escalating tensions and heated rhetoric.
Topics for Talks
The situation in Venezuela, narcotics trade, energy, regional stability, and American military actions on alleged drug vessels are expected to be top on the agenda when they gather at the White House on the scheduled day.
A History of Tensions
Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation following a recent American action, Petro has subsequently stated he believes there is a "serious risk" of military action against Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously remarked that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
The upcoming meeting comes after months of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has often criticised repeated US strikes on alleged narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the White House's immigration policies.
"He changed his attitude," Trump was quoted as stating prior to the White House talks.
Points of Contention
From Washington's perspective, Trump has accused Petro's government of not doing enough to stop the flow of narcotics toward the United States, and has pledged to extend strikes to land targets across the area.
However, the acrimony seemed to dissipate following a "cordial" phone call involving the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later described as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".
Diplomatic Bridge
According to diplomatic sources, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the conversation. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our ties were going in the wrong direction," the senator was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relationship to get better."
Regional Stability and the ELN
Prior to Tuesday's meeting, Colombian stated that much of the conversation would center on mutual US and Colombian concerns over stability in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long frontier.
A significant portion of that frontier is under the sway of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, established in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, racketeering, smuggling, and illegal mining in border states and allegedly works with corrupt elements within the Caracas administration.
For Trump, tackling the threat of the ELN will be crucial to guaranteeing safety for US companies involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Analysts note that the ELN has the capacity to disrupt economic ambitions by attacking foreign investors and employees, as it has previously attempted in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Collaboration
An similarly urgent matter for the two presidents will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest source of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a halt on intelligence sharing with US authorities after Trump's threats.
The US has, conversely, officially designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed restrictions on Colombian officials, including the president and his relatives.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," said a analyst. "The threat to cut off Colombian intelligence could also undermine all enforcement efforts."
Potential Outcomes
Despite several areas for cooperation, the potential for a clash exists. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a former diplomat. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's ire... However, it's unpredictable."
But for Petro, even a contentious encounter could be advantageous. His time in office ends in the coming months, and the results of the talks could impact the political future of his preferred successor.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a win-win position," said a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well undermines opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."
